|Comments on: TOTS Tuesday: Tale of Two Seasons #4
by: Rob Reed
| January 13, 2009, 5:13pm
This week for TOTS Tuesday, I give you the easiest of the lot thus far... easiest because you will likely be able to guess the player once I tell you that we are talking a meteroic rise in the rankings from the previous season. There are only a handful of these guys, so, when I tell you it is an offensive player, I suspect that you are now thinking of five or fewer players.
It's one of those guys. :)
Before last year, he had only limited time in the bigs, and what he did show was terribly inconsistent.
In 2006, this player showed remarkable 30-HR power when he belted 9 HRs in 166 ABs. Many in the fantasy world started to take notice, and he was discussed as a potential breakout star in the preseason of 2007.
Then, in 2007, he began the season on the DL when he was diagnosed with a partial tear of his left labrum during spring training. He made his debut shortly after, but by July, after producing terribly awful statistics, he was demoted back to AAA. He was so bad, in fact, that the team that was hyping him up suddenly decided to cut bait, and he was traded away in December, 2007.
His final 2007 numbers?
229 ABs, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 29 R, .214 AVG, 2 SBs in 4 tries. Not good at all for our fantasy purposes -- especially for an outfielder.
With his new team, however, in 2008, he tore up the joint. In only 480 ABs, he hit 36 HRs, 100 RBI, 96 R, .288 AVG, and 7 SBs. He was so good, in fact, that notwithstanding missing the last month of the season due to a broken wrist, he placed 5th in balloting for AL MVP.
Now, you should know who I'm talking about, but if not...
By all appearances, this was not a fluke. We can debate whether the wrist injury will affect his power ala Derrek Lee. I don't think so. The only legitimate question, however, is that he has had siginifant injuries (torn labrum and broken wrist) in the last two seasons. This is definitely a cause for concern.
Still, a .280 BABIP, a .374 OBP, and a .288 AVG all indicate to me that he could, in fact, hit .300 quite reasonably... and if he does, and if he gets through a whole season sans significant injury, he might just finish #1 in the AL voting next season.
Lastly, we have a RULE OF 27 ALERT. This TOT turns 27 in August.
6/8/11: June Update podcast - Rob looks at pitchers about to break out and hitters about to break up... standard 5x5. PLAYERtrack is now FREE!
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