Message #4 by Rob Reed @ March 20, 2011, 04:07pm Yup, I buy the Verducci effect Basic logic is that a pitcher throws an unusually high number of innings than earlier years (and a young arm) and fatigue is bound to set in... someone like Gio gets hot in Spring, and I only believe the fatigue hasn't set in yet, It's coming.

Message #3 by Fantasy Addict @ March 20, 2011, 12:05am Verducci Effect do you buy into the Verducci effect because I don't. the idea that pitching more will lead to less effectiveness makes no sense to me. the reality is, at least in my opinion, the more a pitcher throws, the better off he is, and the less likely to get hurt he is. There never use to be all the injuries there are now when guys would pitch 250, 300, 350 innings. It's only when the closer role was overly defined, and the goofy quality start number was set at 3 runs over 6 innings, did pitchers start having problems. Do I think guys like Latos will dip this year? maybe a little, but not enough to make a difference, and he has no innings limits on him either. 200 innings out of Brandon Morrow could give you 230-250 Ks if they let him throw 200 innings. Realistically, every pitcher from the biggest scrub in baseball, you know, your Lackey's of the world or your Pirates of the world, to the very elite, like King Felix, they should all pitch in winter ball. Less weight lifting and a whole lot more throwing and everyone would be better off.

Message #2 by Rob Reed @ March 19, 2011, 03:20pm Verducci effect all over him The WHIP wasn't all that great last year... a 78% strand rate with a below average BABIP spells potential disaster in the long term. His FIP was higher than his ERA, too, for good measure. The long and short of these facts, plus an increase of over 100 innings from the season before indicate - to me - that he is NOT worth reaching for at this point in his career. Granted, if you do reach, he could give you nice returns... if you were in my league, though, you would have one less league mate competing against you.

Message #1 by Brian Ramos @ March 18, 2011, 07:14pm breakout? I know his stats scream regression to some extent, but he has been sensational this spring (as he was in the 2nd half of last year) and mlb.com has him ranked in the top 30 SPs. He has a great fastball and the nastiest curveball in the majors. I am tempted to reach a bit for him. Your thoughts?

x=year; y=% of available fantasy points per year x 1000

PLAYERtrack player stats & ranks
        for Gio Gonzalez

G GS IP W L SV HLD ERA HR WHIP 2013 32 32 195.2 11 8 0 0 3.36 17 1.25 SO K/9 HA BABIP FIP LOB QS 192 8.83 169 .278 3.53 77% 21 2013 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 25

G GS IP W L SV HLD ERA HR WHIP 2012 32 32 199.1 21 8 0 0 2.89 9 1.13 SO K/9 HA BABIP FIP LOB QS 207 9.35 149 .264 2.85 75% 22 2012 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 7

G GS IP W L SV HLD ERA HR WHIP 2011 32 32 202.0 16 12 0 0 3.12 17 1.32 SO K/9 HA BABIP FIP LOB QS 197 8.78 175 .279 3.610 80% 19 2011 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 21

G GS IP W L SV HLD ERA HR WHIP 2010 33 33 200.2 15 9 0 0 3.23 15 1.31 SO K/9 HA BABIP FIP LOB QS 171 7.67 171 .266 3.84 78% 23 2010 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 35

G GS IP W L SV HLD ERA HR WHIP 2009 20 17 98.2 6 7 0 0 5.75 14 1.71 SO K/9 HA BABIP FIP LOB QS 109 9.94 113 .346 4.54 70% 2009 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 90

G GS IP W L SV HLD ERA HR WHIP 2008 10 7 34.0 1 4 0 0 7.68 9 1.68 SO K/9 HA BABIP FIP LOB QS 34 9.00 32 .253 6.85 63% Did not pitch 50+ innings so not ranked