Message #10 by Rob Reed @ March 12, 2010, 08:57am just depends on the prospect Everth is a crappy hitter... you will lose out on the potential of 40+ SBs from Everth, but you should get a good chunk of them from Rollins. If this is a keeper league and the prospect is worth keeping, then I think twice about it... if it is not, and the prospect will not get a lot of playing time this year, you would be crazy not to take this deal. Two months of Jose Reyes as a backup is more valuable than Everth in a full season, as far as I am concerned. Worth the risk.

Message #9 by Bearlo0317 @ March 12, 2010, 08:41am Jose Reyes What are your thoughts on him now long term. I was offered him in a dynasty league it would cost me Everth Cabrera and another prospect. I have Rollins also on this team?

Message #8 by Rob Reed @ January 31, 2010, 04:45pm rollins I go with Rollins, only because I suspect Reyes will go higher (I haven't paid much attention to mocks, but I am about to)... Rollins will be better overall, I believe. Further negative is that CitiField is awful for power it seems, so Reyes days of 20 HR potential are long gone... Rollins should hit for higher average, more power, and 2/3 of Reyes' SB output.

Message #7 by Brian Ramos @ January 27, 2010, 01:44pm Reyes or Rollins Who would you take if you were needing a SS and could pick between Rollins and Reyes? Rollins had a very good second half, but not sure if he is elite as he used to and Reyes carries the risk of setback and/or less SBs which is his main value at the position. Thanks!

Message #6 by Rob Reed @ February 7, 2009, 04:48pm Fixing the flaw? I think I may have fixed the ranking flaw with Reyes... the error comes in when we are talking about positional scarcity. Since SS is extremely scarce this year (2009), I decided to create a "positional scarcity" factor in the rankings. Now, Reyes comes in at #10, which I think is very reasonable because of positional scarcity.

Message #5 by Rob Reed @ 3/15/08, 10:48am Re: Reyes Exposing PlayerTrack flaw Thanks for the comment, Ryan. I agree and disagree (but mainly disagree). My agreement is limited to the fact that PlayerTrack does not take into account how a single player (like Reyes) can win you a full category. Or, more simply, you are 20% ahead of the game in the offensive categories just by having Reyes on your roster. This being said, I think it is VERY important to pay attention to one thing. In a draft (particularly serpentine), in my view, those fantasy players who will stay at the top of the heap, are those who bought the highest quality for the lowest price. PlayerTrack received this very same criticism last year with regards to Carl Crawford. Just about every fantasy expert, magazine, what have you, had Carl Crawford as the #1 OF going into the 2007 season. I was one of the few naysayers, and I relied on PlayerTrack in saying so. Well, I won that debate, obviously. So, while folks were drafting Carl Crawford last year in the first round (including Gregg and me in the Beat the Geeks league, where I really intended on proving to Gregg and others that it would not win us the league), they were getting killed for doing so. In the same way, I believe that those drafting Reyes in the early first round of a serpentine draft are shooting themselves in the foot before they can even get going. Rotoworld's fantasy magazine, for instance, charts Reyes as the #2 best player in fantasy going into this year. As far as I am concerned, this is ridiculous. The ultimate point is that PlayerTrack reveals to you that there is better overall value elsewhere. This being said, I am keeping Reyes for $28 in my money league (drafting tomorrow). The primary reason is so that I can get a foothold on steals and not worry about it as much as I look for low price and high quality at other positions. In a serpentine draft this year, I would NOT take Reyes in the first round unless I had a high first pick number (say 9-12), knowing that I could follow Reyes up with a multi-category stud who will potentially give me much more balance across the board. Balance is key in my philosophy, and the 2007 version of Jose Reyes was severely lacking in that.

Message #4 by Ryan Barker @ 3/15/08, 9:55am Comments Playertrack is great, but Reyes exposes its flaw. The playertrack ranking just gives points for ranking ahead of a guy in a stat category. It doesn't take into account the gap between the rungs. In steals, Reyes gets one point for being (18?) steals ahead of Pierre... and he would get that one point regardless of whether he was one steal ahead or 100. Playertrack wouldn't take that into account. This sort of problem also bears itself out by not consistently ranking players in the overall ranking vs. how they are ranked when you sort by position. Lets say you were looking at the #4 and #5 3rd basemen (I'm not using their real stats) The overall rankings can find more players to intersperse between those two in say RBI... thus, the gap in the RBI between those two is weighted higher in the overall rankings, and can effect the overall order. Again, I love playertrack for what it can do, but we need to acknowledge its hole... and Reyes is likely one of the biggest losers from this type of analysis.

Message #3 by thetrueguru @ 3/11/08, 11:16pm Nice Rob Right On...I like that thought. I certainly agree with the having one solid 40+ stolen base guy on your team. Frankly, I think you need 100 bases as an absolute minimum to take the category. Reyes gives you as least 70 and he's big on runs. But the price is so high, and the question is do you really need that many bases from one guy if no one else can even come that close? Reyes is overkill in some leagues. Plus, you give up on power with Reyes when like you said gettign 28 Hrs and 50 stolen bases from Hanley sounds allot better. What about Figgins in the 5th round? He can get you 60 and bat over .300! Do you think there are better values in the draft than Reyes?

Message #2 by Rob Reed @ 3/11/08, 8:46pm Re: overvalued You and I are on the same page. And, playertrack's rankings help support our position immensely. Still, as I said in the latest baseballgeeks.com podcast, I think that in order to win your league, you need one stud stolen base guy (stud = 40+ SB minimum). As Reyes doubles this output, he is incredibly valuable because he can win you 1/5 categories, or get you 20% ahead of the game just by having him on your team. It is for this reason that I am holding him for $28 in my money league -- my highest priced hold. In a serpentine, I would not take him #2. Hanley Ramirez or Jimmy Rollins? After their 2007 season, absolutely.

Message #1 by thetrueguru @ 3/11/08, 7:59pm Is he overvalued? Is Jose Reyes overvalued? Right now he's pretty much the second pick in the draft, but if you look at his last season the numbers aren't anything to talk about except the 78 steals. If you look at his last three years he's never batted over .300, never hit over 20 homeruns and averages 67 steals and 113 runs. Is that worth the #2 overall pick? Especially when there are guys out there like Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins, and possibly even Jacoby Ellsbury who can compete with those numbers, bu are take later, sometimes much later in the draft. Just a thought

x=year; y=% of available fantasy points per year x 1000

PLAYERtrack player stats & ranks
        for Jose Reyes

AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R AVG OBP SB 2013 382 113 20 0 10 37 58 .296 .353 15 SO BABIP CR% SLG OPS 47 .317 87% .427 0.78 2013 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 148

AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R AVG OBP SB 2012 642 184 37 12 11 57 86 .287 .350 40 SO BABIP CR% SLG OPS 56 .301 91% .433 0.783 2012 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 128 2012 (SS) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 10

AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R AVG OBP SB 2011 537 181 31 16 7 44 101 .337 .386 39 SO BABIP CR% SLG OPS 41 .356 92% .493 0.879 2011 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 18 2011 (SS) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 1

AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R AVG OBP SB 2010 563 159 29 10 11 54 83 .282 .320 30 SO BABIP CR% SLG OPS 63 .303 88% .428 0.748 2010 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 79 2010 (SS) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 7

AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R AVG OBP SB 2009 147 41 7 2 2 15 18 .279 .358 11 SO BABIP CR% SLG OPS 19 .310 87% .395 0.753 No ranking because did not play 20+ games at any position SS-35

AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R AVG OBP SB 2008 688 204 37 19 16 68 113 .297 .358 56 SO BABIP CR% SLG OPS 82 .319 88% .475 0.833 2008 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 56 2008 (SS) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 4

AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R AVG OBP SB 2007 681 191 36 12 12 57 119 .280 .354 78 SO BABIP CR% SLG OPS 78 .303 88% .421 0.775 2007 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 83 2007 (SS) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 9

AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R AVG OBP SB 2006 647 194 30 17 19 81 122 .300 .354 64 SO BABIP CR% SLG OPS 81 .320 87% .487 0.841 2006 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 2 2006 (SS) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 1

AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R AVG OBP SB 2005 696 190 24 17 7 58 99 .273 .300 60 SO BABIP CR% SLG OPS 78 .300 88% .386 0.686 2005 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 120 2005 (SS) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 13

AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R AVG OBP SB 2004 220 56 16 2 2 14 33 .255 .271 19 SO BABIP CR% SLG OPS 31 .289 85% .373 0.644 2004 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 240 2004 (2B) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 33