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Aaron Hill, ARZ, NL
Birthdate: 03-21-1982
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Message #7 by Rob Reed @ February 7, 2011, 09:36pm
you can reasonably expect
a .285 AVG and 20+ HRs... many in your league might not want to touch him, so wait to pull the trigger - especially in auction leagues... the 2B position is very slim, and I'll bet there are many leagues out there that are more excited about Kelly Johnson than Aaron.

Big mistake.

Message #6 by Rob Reed @ February 4, 2011, 01:33am
among all players
with 500 ABs or more, he had the LEAGUE WORST BABIP... sub .200!

Still, his 26 HRs proved that his newfound power numbers from 2009 were not that fluky.

Aaron is a very good fantasy player who will be largely looked down upon at your draft. I would say: use this to your advantage.

Message #5 by Rob Reed @ June 9, 2010, 02:24pm
ugh
I'm stuck with him in the Bloomberg league where I'm getting slaughtered (where my #2 pick was Ellsbury and my #3 was Grady... nice, Rob!).

Everything is going wrong with him...

But, look at the peripherals. As long as he is playing, he should hit .300+ the rest of the way (.165 BABIP with an 81% contact rate through the end of May... are you kidding me?!?!?!).

25 HR power is still there.

I'm riding him out the whole way, unless and until the Blue Jays just stop playing him.

A colleague of mine thinks Hill is hurt... I don't see anything to indicate that just yet. We are just barely a third of the way through... I expect Hill to right the ship.

If he doesn't, he will be one of my 2B sleepers next year because nobody is gonna want him... when, in fact, his peripherals indicate that he not that different a hitter from last year.

OBP is promising, too... if he gets the average up to a lowly .265, he'll likely be getting on base at a 37% of the time clip, which means future runs scored.

Message #4 by Bearlo0317 @ June 9, 2010, 08:40am
Aaron Hill
Is there any hope for him? He looked brutal this weekend vs the Yankees.

Message #3 by Rob Reed @ February 15, 2010, 07:47am
I choose...
If not an issue of auction money and just a serpentine keeper league, Aaron Hill in a heartbeat... 2B is very slim this year... probably as slim as shortstop... I will be talking about 2B this week on the next podcast.

Message #2 by Bearlo0317 @ February 15, 2010, 06:39am
Aaron Hill
So if you had to choose between two players where you can only keep one of them,

Aaron Hill or Adam Lind (who I did trade high last year only to get him back at the trading deadline as I was hopelessly out of the race)

Message #1 by Rob Reed @ December 10, 2009, 11:01am
question mark
I get why folks like Ron Shandler were hyping Aaron Hill last year as a potential sleeper - those 17 HRs in 2007 showed that, given a full season, Aaron Hill had the potential to be a 20 HR, .290 hitter.

But 36 HRs?!?!?!?!!?!

Nobody saw that coming...

What about his 2010?

On the positive side, a .290 BABIP and 85% contact rate bodes well for an increased batting average. I cannot possibly imagine, however, that his power numbers will return to those high numbers.

The player graph indicates a regression (purple line) which doesn't take a rocket scientist. Based on the peripherals and past stats, I foresee a line of .290, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 90 R - all very good.

Last season was his rule of 27 year.

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PLAYERtrack overall ranking graph
        for Aaron Hill

x=year; y=% of available fantasy points per year x 1000

Stat Chart

PLAYERtrack player stats & ranks
        for Aaron Hill

ABH2B3BHRRBIRAVGOBPSB
201332795211114145.291.3481
SOBABIPCR%SLGOPS
48.31385%.4620.81
2013 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 142

ABH2B3BHRRBIRAVGOBPSB
2012609184446268593.302.35714
SOBABIPCR%SLGOPS
86.31885%.5220.879
2012 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 36
2012 (2B) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 2

ABH2B3BHRRBIRAVGOBPSB
201152012827386161.246.29421
SOBABIPCR%SLGOPS
72.27386%.3560.65
2011 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 208
2011 (2B) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 22

ABH2B3BHRRBIRAVGOBPSB
2010528108220266870.205.2622
SOBABIPCR%SLGOPS
85.19783%.3940.656
2010 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 264
2010 (2B) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 43

ABH2B3BHRRBIRAVGOBPSB
200968219537036108103.286.3276
SOBABIPCR%SLGOPS
98.29085%.4990.826
2009 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 52
2009 (2B) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 8

ABH2B3BHRRBIRAVGOBPSB
20082055414022019.263.3174
SOBABIPCR%SLGOPS
31.30284%.3610.678
2008 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 281
2008 (2B) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 50

ABH2B3BHRRBIRAVGOBPSB
2007608177472177887.291.3364
SOBABIPCR%SLGOPS
102.32783%.4590.795
2007 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 47
2007 (2B) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 5

ABH2B3BHRRBIRAVGOBPSB
200654615928365070.291.3495
SOBABIPCR%SLGOPS
66.32387%.3860.735
2006 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 315
2006 (2B) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 47
2006 (SS) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 39

ABH2B3BHRRBIRAVGOBPSB
20053619925334049.274.3422
SOBABIPCR%SLGOPS
41.30388%.3850.727
2005 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 211
2005 (3B) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 32
2005 (DH) PLAYERTRACK RANK: 22

The PLAYERtrack rankings, above, are under standard 5x5 format (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB), minimum of 20 games played at a position; players are ranked versus all AL/NL hitters, PRORATED