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Cliff Lee, PHI, NL
Birthdate: 08-30-1978
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Message #4 by Rob Reed @ July 13, 2010, 07:25am
moving to Texas
makes this fellow a bit scary... awesome pitcher the last few years, and he did fare well - especially at the start - when he pitched at hitters park Citizens Bank last year...

I'm hanging on to him in my money league and closing my eyes (especially after his complete game, 6 earned first start with TX at TX)

Message #3 by Rob Reed @ December 31, 2009, 12:12am
still plenty to like...
goes to a pitcher's ballpark after posting spectacular numbers at Citizens' Bank when he first got there... like last year, nothing in his peripherals indicates much of a regression...

Top 3 pitcher in 2008. Top 20 in 2009. Top 10 again, I think...

Message #2 by Rob Reed @ December 17, 2008, 04:15pm
A strange beast...
From a blog entry I posted today on ERA and FIP at http://www.playertrack.com/blog.pl?7:

In 2008, he ranks 3rd in ERA (2.54) and 3rd in FIP (2.83), making him the #1 pitcher in all of baseball looking at these two categories solely.

In Cliff, we have a strange beast.

In 2005, Cliff was the 27th best pitcher in baseball according to PLAYERtrack. He posted a 3.79 ERA and a 3.97 FIP. These were his best figures until 2008, where PLAYERtrack ranked him as the #3 pitcher in all of baseball.

In 2006, his FIP was 4.66 (ERA was 4.31; PLAYERtrack rank of 92). In 2007, his FIP was 5.22 (ERA was 6.29; PLAYERtrack rank of 262!).

All through last season, I was predicting a major drop off because of his ugly stats the previous 2 seasons, yet it never happened. And, now, I want to justify my criticism by being able to point to a high FIP like I could have for Fausto Carmona in 2007 to show a predicted regression. But, I canít.

Cliff's K/9 went up by almost a full strikeout (+.75). Hitters actually fared better against him in 2008 (.274 BABIP), then they have since PLAYERtrack started recording pitching stats in 2005 (previous high was .269 in 2006).

Conclusion? By all appearances, Cliff Lee is here to stay as a top 10 starter.

Message #1 by Rob Reed @ 6/10/08, 11:29pm
sell high
Brian Joura of fantasybaseballgenerals.com just came out and said to sell high here, and I cannot agree more... 4-0 in his last four with an ERA over 5 and a whip over 1.7.

It is gonna get worse... let someone else get those bad stats and get the best you can for him now.

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PLAYERtrack overall ranking graph
        for Cliff Lee

x=year; y=% of available fantasy points per year x 1000

Stat Chart

PLAYERtrack player stats & ranks
        for Cliff Lee

GGSIPWLSVHLDERAHRWHIP
20133131222.2148002.87221.01
SOK/9HABABIPFIPLOBQS
2228.97193.2772.9279%24
2013 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 4

GGSIPWLSVHLDERAHRWHIP
20123030211.069003.16261.11
SOK/9HABABIPFIPLOBQS
2078.83207.2983.2481%21
2012 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 12

GGSIPWLSVHLDERAHRWHIP
20113232232.2178002.310181.03
SOK/9HABABIPFIPLOBQS
2389.21197.2802.7082%25
2011 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 3

GGSIPWLSVHLDERAHRWHIP
20102828212.1129003.18161.00
SOK/9HABABIPFIPLOBQS
1857.84195.2842.6972%18
2010 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 14

GGSIPWLSVHLDERAHRWHIP
20093434231.21413003.22171.24
SOK/9HABABIPFIPLOBQS
1817.03245.3073.1577%
2009 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 20

GGSIPWLSVHLDERAHRWHIP
20083131223.1223002.54121.11
SOK/9HABABIPFIPLOBQS
1706.85214.2882.8380%
2008 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 19

GGSIPWLSVHLDERAHRWHIP
2007201697.158006.29171.52
SOK/9HABABIPFIPLOBQS
666.10112.2965.2264%
2007 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 181

GGSIPWLSVHLDERAHRWHIP
20063333200.21411004.310291.41
SOK/9HABABIPFIPLOBQS
1295.79224.2924.6676%
2006 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 56

GGSIPWLSVHLDERAHRWHIP
20053232202185003.79221.22
SOK/9HABABIPFIPLOBQS
1436.37194.2713.9774%
2005 OVERALL PLAYERTRACK RANK: 38

The PLAYERtrack rankings, above, are under standard 5x5 format (ERA, K, W, SV, WHIP), minimum of 50 innings pitched; players are ranked versus all AL/NL pitchers