Comments on: Anatomy of a "lucky season" for a pitcher: using LOB% (strand rate) and BABIP
by: Rob Reed
| February 22, 2010, 4:58pm
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The Giants signed (again) Todd Wellemeyer off of the free agent market today.
As a result, I needed to update the player profile, and at the same time, I found a great example of why you should pay attention to strand rate and BABIP when determining whether a pitcher is the "real deal" or not.
Todd's 2007: 4.54 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, .282 BABIP, 71% LOB
Todd's 2008: 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .258 BABIP, 78% LOB
Todd's 2009: 5.89 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, .328 BABIP, 71% LOB
Todd has shown that he is more of a 71% strand-rate pitcher, historically. So, that was predictable. But, the .258 BABIP and 78% LOB in 2008 should have raised the warning flags.
The good news for Todd is that his WHIP and ERA were inflated by a .328 BABIP against last year, but this only means that what we have here is a pitcher who is more likely to look like his 2007 than his 2008.
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