It is easy to find the luckiest pitchers in all of baseball using the PLAYERtrack system... in this search, I look at 2009 starters with a minimum of 150 IP, ranking with these categories: W, ERA, FIP- (worst to first FIP), BABIP- (lowest to highest BABIP), LOB%- (highest to lowest strand rates).

Every one of these pitchers had 12 wins or more... and each is worth a look at a potential regression.

1. Bronson Arroyo, CIN, NL, 33 G, 33 starts, 220.1 IP, 94 ER, 15 W, 13 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 214 H, 65 BB, 31 HR, 127 SO, 3.84 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 78% LOB, 5.19 K/9, 1.95 K/BB, 1.27 HR/9, 2.66 BB/9, .255 BABIP, 4.76 FIP

Bid on him like you're bidding on his 2008. Otherwise, you are gonna get bit... and bit hard... 30 W in 2 years, though, is nice... but the .255 BABIP, 4.76 FIP last year tells the story.

2. J.A. Happ, PHI, NL, 35 G, 23 starts, 166.0 IP, 54 ER, 12 W, 4 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 149 H, 56 BB, 20 HR, 119 SO, 2.93 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 85% LOB, 6.45 K/9, 2.13 K/BB, 1.08 HR/9, 3.04 BB/9, .254 BABIP, 4.34 FIP

27 years old. Nice K pitcher in the minors that hasn't completely translated in the majors. A 3.3 ERA pitcher with a WHIP in the 1.2's in 5 minor league seasons. The tale of his 2009, however, is a .254 BABIP and 85% strand rate. Bid on him as if his WHIP was 1.40 and his ERA was his 4.3 FIP. Unfortunately, I don't think you'll get the chance

3. Matt Cain, SF, NL, 33 G, 33 starts, 217.2 IP, 70 ER, 14 W, 8 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 184 H, 73 BB, 22 HR, 171 SO, 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 82% LOB, 7.07 K/9, 2.34 K/BB, 0.91 HR/9, 3.02 BB/9, .252 BABIP, 3.95 FIP

FIP over a run above his ERA, a strand rate almost 10% higher than league average, a BABIP about 20 points below league average, and playing on a lousy team spells D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R if you draft him as if he will repeat his 2009 stats

4. Kevin Millwood, BAL, AL, 31 G, 31 starts, 198.2 IP, 81 ER, 13 W, 10 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 195 H, 71 BB, 26 HR, 123 SO, 3.67 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 80% LOB, 5.57 K/9, 1.73 K/BB, 1.18 HR/9, 3.22 BB/9, .263 BABIP, 4.74 FIP

Tied his career high in HRs allowed last year, yet he posted very good numbers... the recipient of amazing luck... bid on him like you'll get his 2007 season... better yet, don't bid on him at all unless it is AL only and you are desperate for wins.

2007-2008 combined BABIP in the .330s, so 2009's .263 is downright scary

5. John Danks, CHA, AL, 32 G, 32 starts, 200.1 IP, 84 ER, 13 W, 11 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 184 H, 73 BB, 28 HR, 149 SO, 3.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 79% LOB, 6.69 K/9, 2.04 K/BB, 1.26 HR/9, 3.28 BB/9, .257 BABIP, 4.62 FIP

Not a bad pitcher. He had a decent year in 2008 without the peripheral luck factors that he had in 2009. But, the tale of the tape in 2008 was a remarkable regression in homeruns allowed.

If you thought that would continue, Danks proved otherwise last year. I would see a 1.35 WHIP, 4.00 ERA, and 12 wins, which would make him a decent #4,#5 in multi-leagues

6. Jair Jurrjens, ATL, NL, 34 G, 34 starts, 215.0 IP, 62 ER, 14 W, 10 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 186 H, 75 BB, 15 HR, 152 SO, 2.510 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 82% LOB, 6.36 K/9, 2.03 K/BB, 0.63 HR/9, 3.14 BB/9, .258 BABIP, 3.74 FIP

You are safe if you bid on his 2008 and not his 2009... this is still very decent... a good pitcher who you could have gotten relatively cheap, but who will be harder to hide with that 2.5 ERA last year... may go for more money than he will get you in 2010

7. Chris Carpenter, STL, NL, 192.2 IP, 48 ER, 17 W, 4 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 156 H, 38 BB, 7 HR, 144 SO, 2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 79% LOB, 6.73 K/9, 3.79 K/BB, 0.33 HR/9, 1.78 BB/9, .256 BABIP, 2.77 FIP

Expect a low 3 ERA... everything else should be the same or similar... a lot of folks down on his injury risk... he was too good last year for you to think twice about it. As far as I am concerned, a solid #1. One of the few examples in this list whose final 2009 numbers were deserved

8. Edwin Jackson, ARZ, NL, 33 G, 33 starts, 214.0 IP, 86 ER, 13 W, 9 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 200 H, 70 BB, 27 HR, 161 SO, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 79% LOB, 6.77 K/9, 2.30 K/BB, 1.14 HR/9, 2.94 BB/9, .265 BABIP, 4.32 FIP

His peripherals allowed me to predict a potential breakout last year. His confidence built up last year... yes, he was luckier than most pitchers, and he is probably, still, a low 4s ERA pitcher... but, while I predict a drop in his stats in 2010, we should see steady improvement from 2010 on...

The good news? A move to the NL west, where he contends with two teams in pitcher parks... and faces a pitcher batting against him.

The bad news? I suspect folks are going to pay too much for Edwin next year, so on that note, I offer a warning... anything more than $8 for Edwin in a multi-league is a mistake. He is probably worth $12-$15 in an NL-only

9. Felix Hernandez, SEA, AL, 34 G, 34 starts, 238.2 IP, 66 ER, 19 W, 5 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 200 H, 71 BB, 15 HR, 217 SO, 2.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 82% LOB, 8.18 K/9, 3.06 K/BB, 0.57 HR/9, 2.68 BB/9, .270 BABIP, 3.09 FIP

I still like him a lot. This, to me, just means he is more of a low 3 ERA pitcher than a mid 2. He gets hit a little harder, and his WHIP will regress, as well... but, he is still a solid #1 in my book.

10. Rick Porcello, DET, AL, 31 G, 31 starts, 170.2 IP, 75 ER, 14 W, 9 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 176 H, 52 BB, 23 HR, 89 SO, 3.96 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 78% LOB, 4.69 K/9, 1.71 K/BB, 1.21 HR/9, 2.74 BB/9, .266 BABIP, 4.82 FIP

The Tigers needed these stats last year... but, alas, he was the recipient of a ton of luck. He still has many years to go to improve, but his Ks are lousy, and he should have been more of a high 4 ERA pitcher last year. I think I avoid him in 2010.

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See The luckiest hitters in 2009...