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Comments on: New offensive statistic additions today... CR%- and AVG-
by: Rob Reed | January 8, 2009, 3:52pm
     

I have now added the capability to reverse search contact rate and batting average. This creates the following stat search scenarios that I think are VERY valuable for your fantasy analysis:

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CR% + BABIP- (low to high) + AVG- (low to high) = find players who made a lot of contact with the ball but who suffered from bad luck, meaning they might be good options for increased AVG next year

CR% + BABIP- (low to high) + AVG = find players who did well in AVG, but who could do even better next year with some increased luck

CR%- (low to high) + BABIP+ + AVG = find players who just plain got lucky and are due for an AVG regression

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So, for fun, I did a CR%-, BABIP+, and AVG ranking among all players with a minimum of 150 ABs and 20 games played at a position. This was performed to "find players who just plain got lucky and are due for an AVG regression."

Here are the top 10:

01. Milton Bradley: you could see this a mile away... move to hitter-friendly Wrigley might help him stay above .290, but there is no way he will keep up last season's .396 BABIP

02. Shin-Soo Choo: lots of sleeper talk here... don't forget his .373 BABIP in 2008 before you drink the Kool-Aid

03. Manny Ramirez: yup... add that he was playing for a contract, I believe a regression is imminent

04. Ryan Ludwick: breakout star at 30 years old? power is there... don't expect the .300 AVG

05. John Baker: only 197 ABs... too small a sample to come to any major conclusions

06. Chris Davis: is he worth the hype beyond his power?

07. Matt Kemp: he is being heavily hyped, too, and as a Dodger fan, it is hard for me to dispute... but he looks headed for an AVG crash. On the positive, there are some players (like in poker) who just get consistently lucky... and in the last three seasons, that has been Matt Kemp

08. Fred Lewis: you would only look to him as an SB specialist, anyway

09. Matt Holliday: move to hitter-unfriendly Oakland, added with this rank, makes it appear that Matt Holliday fans (myself, in particular) are going to be disappointed with his average next year... but he is like Matt Kemp in that he has had a high BABIP throughout his brief career... do I keep him for $33 in my keeper money league next year? I'm thinking NO.

10. Mike Fontenot: He certainly has a great eye... but he also certainly got very lucky hitting the ball in play (40 points higher in 2008 than 2007 in 140 fewer ABs)... not a great fantasy option, so not worth much more discussion

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Mike Trout: I suppose... by Rob Reed (April 6, 2013, 08:25pm)
Victor Martinez: Good question by Rob Reed (March 22, 2013, 04:42pm)
Victor Martinez: keeper question by bramos (February 28, 2013, 08:36am)
Adam Jones: Tearing it up... by Rob Reed (May 8, 2012, 03:40pm)
Bryce Harper: 19-years old by Rob Reed (May 7, 2012, 10:45am)
Johnny Cueto: k rate went down by Rob Reed (April 3, 2012, 04:18pm)
Alex Gordon: high babip and league avg contact by Rob Reed (March 27, 2012, 11:49am)
Mike Aviles: I like Aviles by Rob Reed (March 26, 2012, 04:03pm)
Mike Aviles: thoughts? by Brian Ramos (March 26, 2012, 01:38pm)
Sean Marshall: definitely by Brian Ramos (March 26, 2012, 01:34pm)
Sean Marshall: closer by Rob Reed (March 25, 2012, 11:51pm)
Matt Cain: surprised by Rob Reed (March 25, 2012, 09:15pm)
Jacoby Ellsbury: hellooooooo power by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 06:19pm)
Curtis Granderson: well, he didn't hit .285 by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 01:25pm)
Alex Rios: the stolen bases are done by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 09:08am)
Eric Hosmer: interesting by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 09:04am)
Greg Halman: R.I.P. by Rob Reed (March 22, 2012, 03:29pm)
Jed Lowrie: personally by Rob Reed (February 24, 2012, 02:37pm)
Hanley Ramirez: absolutely agree by Rob Reed (February 24, 2012, 02:34pm)
Hanley Ramirez: HanRam by DanO (February 16, 2012, 01:17pm)
Jed Lowrie: thoughts? by Brian Ramos (February 14, 2012, 03:26pm)

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