|Comments on: An offer I couldn't refuse...
by: Rob Reed
| May 6, 2011, 4:46pm
In this year's issue of Fantasy Baseball Index magazine, I was asked: who do you go with - Colby Lewis or C.J. Wilson? I chose C.J. So far, I'm a genius.
Last week, I lost Pablo Sandoval in the PLAYERtrack.com fantasy league, and I have had to use Edwin Encarnacion in the 3B spot. Yes. Not fun.
So, I was pleasantly surprised to see a trade offer in the league yesterday:
At first glance, I was wary, but I do need a 3B and Arod is nearly as good as it gets. The plus for me is that the owner clearly is not a fan of Arod's .270ish average thus far (and his .270ish average last year).
This owner also probably thinks that C.J. is pitching out of his mind thus far this season and can't continue a sub 3.00 ERA. On this point, I think he would be right (but not by much).
As far as Tim Lincecum is concerned, it is Tim Lincecum. Stud all over. A FIP a bit less than his current ERA and he is already ranked the 10th overall pitcher on PLAYERtrack through 5/5/11 (15 min IP).
So, why did I say YES to this deal?
C.J. (51st ranked pitcher): 78% strand rate (league avg is 74%); 8.39 K/9 is better than last season but not aberationally high; like Lincecum, his FIP is below his ERA. Con: the bandbox of Texas.
But, I did not make this deal for C.J. It is just that C.J. doesn't kill me as a replacement for one of the best pitchers in the game.
And, while Arod is aging, I think I get the better of the deal because his BABIP is aberationally as low as it was last season... his BABIP can reasonably go up 20 points, meaning that he is really a .290 hitter through the remainder of the season. Con: he won't run... but then again, I didn't get Panda to run, either. :)
All in all, this is a good deal for both teams, but I think I get slightly better just because the other team doesn't get anything to replace Arod.
6/8/11: June Update podcast - Rob looks at pitchers about to break out and hitters about to break up... standard 5x5. PLAYERtrack is now FREE!
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