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Comments on: Top 10 pitchers through Aug 1: Can they keep it up?
by: Rob Reed | August 11, 2009, 5:01pm
     

1. Tim Lincecum: 148.2 IP, 38 ER, 11 W, 3 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 116 H, 40 BB, 6 HR, 183 SO, 2.30 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 79% LOB, 11.1 K/9, 4.58 K/BB, 0.36 HR/9, 2.42 BB/9, .295 BABIP, 2.07 FIP

Strand rate above league average, but not far off. His high BABIP means that notwithstanding his great numbers, his success has little to do with luck. Amazing pitcher who will only lose high value if he gets injured.

2. Zack Greinke: 147.1 IP, 34 ER, 10 W, 6 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 133 H, 28 BB, 6 HR, 153 SO, 2.08 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 83% LOB, 9.35 K/9, 5.46 K/BB, 0.37 HR/9, 1.71 BB/9, .305 BABIP, 2.22 FIP

Pretty much the same analysis as Lincecum.

3. Dan Haren: 148.0 IP, 36 ER, 10 W, 6 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 105 H, 22 BB, 14 HR, 146 SO, 2.19 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 84% LOB, 8.88 K/9, 6.64 K/BB, 0.85 HR/9, 1.34 BB/9, .234 BABIP, 2.90 FIP

While he has been amazing, his FIP, strand rate, and BABIP indicate a regression the rest of the way. Now would be a good time to shop for whatever offensive needs you need...

4. Roy Halladay: 148.0 IP, 44 ER, 11 W, 4 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 139 H, 20 BB, 11 HR, 129 SO, 2.68 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 80% LOB, 7.84 K/9, 6.45 K/BB, 0.67 HR/9, 1.22 BB/9, .289 BABIP, 2.83 FIP

More of the same.

5. Felix Hernandez: 145.1 IP, 45 ER, 11 W, 4 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 128 H, 39 BB, 10 HR, 139 SO, 2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 79% LOB, 8.61 K/9, 3.56 K/BB, 0.62 HR/9, 2.42 BB/9, .284 BABIP, 2.99 FIP

What you see is what you get here, too. He has arrived as a top tier pitcher.

6. Justin Verlander: 145.1 IP, 51 ER, 12 W, 5 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 127 H, 43 BB, 12 HR, 172 SO, 3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 77% LOB, 10.7 K/9, 4.00 K/BB, 0.74 HR/9, 2.66 BB/9, .303 BABIP, 2.79 FI

No reason to cut bait. His stats are for real.

7. Matt Cain: 140.0 IP, 33 ER, 12 W, 2 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 110 H, 54 BB, 12 HR, 112 SO, 2.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 88% LOB, 7.20 K/9, 2.07 K/BB, 0.77 HR/9, 3.47 BB/9, .241 BABIP, 3.87 FIP

Low BABIP, high strand rate, crazy high FIP versus actual ERA. CUT BAIT ASAP!

8. Josh Beckett: 36.0 IP, 52 ER, 12 W, 4 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 119 H, 37 BB, 10 HR, 127 SO, 3.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 73% LOB, 8.40 K/9, 3.43 K/BB, 0.66 HR/9, 2.45 BB/9, .279 BABIP, 3.10 FIP

Had been so good, and these stats indicate he could even end the season better. A top 5 finish is probably in the cards.

9. Johan Santana: 137.0 IP, 45 ER, 12 W, 8 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 124 H, 43 BB, 16 HR, 128 SO, 2.96 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 84% LOB, 8.41 K/9, 2.98 K/BB, 1.05 HR/9, 2.82 BB/9, .276 BABIP, 3.79 FIP

Perhaps a mild dropoff, but still top 10 material.

10. Wandy Rodriguez: 132.2 IP, 39 ER, 10 W, 6 L, 0 SV, 0 HOLDS, 119 H, 44 BB, 14 HR, 124 SO, 2.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 86% LOB, 8.41 K/9, 2.82 K/BB, 0.95 HR/9, 2.98 BB/9, .277 BABIP, 3.610 FIP

Due for a regression, but not much. I stick with him, too.

---

The two top 10 pitchers to trade for need: Matt Cain and Dan Haren.

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6/8/11: June Update podcast - Rob looks at pitchers about to break out and hitters about to break up... standard 5x5. PLAYERtrack is now FREE!

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Adam Jones: tommy1 by tommy1 (March 10, 2022, 06:20am)
Mike Trout: tommy1 by tommy1 (March 10, 2022, 06:17am)
Mike Trout: I suppose... by Rob Reed (April 6, 2013, 08:25pm)
Victor Martinez: Good question by Rob Reed (March 22, 2013, 04:42pm)
Victor Martinez: keeper question by bramos (February 28, 2013, 08:36am)
Adam Jones: Tearing it up... by Rob Reed (May 8, 2012, 03:40pm)
Bryce Harper: 19-years old by Rob Reed (May 7, 2012, 10:45am)
Johnny Cueto: k rate went down by Rob Reed (April 3, 2012, 04:18pm)
Alex Gordon: high babip and league avg contact by Rob Reed (March 27, 2012, 11:49am)
Mike Aviles: I like Aviles by Rob Reed (March 26, 2012, 04:03pm)
Mike Aviles: thoughts? by Brian Ramos (March 26, 2012, 01:38pm)
Sean Marshall: definitely by Brian Ramos (March 26, 2012, 01:34pm)
Sean Marshall: closer by Rob Reed (March 25, 2012, 11:51pm)
Matt Cain: surprised by Rob Reed (March 25, 2012, 09:15pm)
Jacoby Ellsbury: hellooooooo power by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 06:19pm)
Curtis Granderson: well, he didn't hit .285 by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 01:25pm)
Alex Rios: the stolen bases are done by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 09:08am)
Eric Hosmer: interesting by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 09:04am)
Greg Halman: R.I.P. by Rob Reed (March 22, 2012, 03:29pm)
Jed Lowrie: personally by Rob Reed (February 24, 2012, 02:37pm)
Hanley Ramirez: absolutely agree by Rob Reed (February 24, 2012, 02:34pm)


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